Regarding that oil thing I was talking about some time ago.... I'm happy to report that the obsessive nature of the topic never really left me. I am no expert, but I have been playing one on TV for about a year now.

I ran across an article in Forbes yesterday that had a moment of "oh Shit" in it (emphasis added). To wit:

Worldwide, capital expenditures on energy exploration and production have risen 15% in each of the past two years to $170 billion, according to Herold. The number of drilling rigs poking holes in the world is at a high not seen in 20 years--up from 1,200 in 1999 to 3,000 now. Yet the oil supply, at 84 million barrels a day, has expanded just 1% since 2004.

The greatest effort to arrest the inevitable is taking place in the Persian Gulf. Since 2004 Saudi Aramco has been fighting declining oil output from megafields like 70-billion-barrel Ghawar by doubling the number of drilling rigs to 120 this year. By then, said Saudi Oil Minister Ali Ibrahim Al-Naimi at a recent conference, the kingdom aims to boost production capacity from 11 million barrels a day to 12.5 million--at a cost of roughly $11 billion.

The implication of this is quite startling. If Ghawar is declining, we are all, for lack of a better word, fucked.

Oh, that ethanol thing ain't gonna pick up the slack either, although it will help the farmers.

Here's to the future.

:::::posted by erratic :: 03-something PM EST linky